The Asian Development Bank (ADB) does not expect the impact of the closure of schools due to the COVID-19 pandemic on Azerbaijan's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, Report informs.
According to the Bank, over the next 7 years, the impact on Azerbaijan's GDP will change from -0.08 to -0.54%.
The closure of schools will cause a decline of $2 million in the Azerbaijani economy in 2023, $ 36 million in 2024, $ 68 million in 2025, $ 112 million in 2026, $ 163 million in 2027, $ 210 million in 2018, $ 253 million in 2029, and $ 245 million in 2030.
The ADB's forecast for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP in all countries of the region is negative. The study estimates that school closures lead to declines in global GDP and employment. Moreover, the losses in global GDP and employment increase over time. Declines in global GDP amount to 0.19% in 2024, 0.64% in 2028, and 1.11% in 2030. In absolute terms, the cost to the global economy in 2030 alone is $943 billion. Considering skilled labour, global losses to employment amount to declines of 0.05% in 2024, 0.25% in 2026, and 0.75% in 2030. The study estimates that school closures will deny about 5.44 million people around the world employment in the skilled labour force by 2030. Also, in terms of absolute costs, lost wages to the baseline scenario total $94.86 billion. For unskilled labour, the global contraction in employment is estimated to be 0.22% in 2025, 0.51% in 2027, and 1.15% in 2030. Around 35.69 million people around the world would have made into the unskilled labour force had the pandemic did not lead schools to close. In terms of cost, lost wages amount to $121.54 billion in 2030.