Independent Norwegian consulting firm Rystad Energy forecasts the average price per barrel of oil at $60 in 2026 and 2027, Aditya Saraswat, Research Director for the MENA region at Rystad Energy, said during the IADC Drilling Caspian & Black Sea 2026 conference and exhibition in Baku, Report informs.
"Of course, anything could happen: geopolitical shocks or OPEC's response to excess supply. But if you combine the 'fundamentals' with current supply and demand, this is exactly the picture that emerges.
We are seeing changes in spot price behavior: the influence of geopolitics is no longer factored into the long-term premium. When a conflict arises (as recently with Iran), prices jump sharply, but then fall just as quickly. It can be said that as long as global events don't directly impact supply routes, prices remain more or less 'masked' from global shocks," Saraswat said.
According to him, OPEC has so far taken a defensive stance on prices.
"However, in the last quarter of 2025, we saw OPEC returning some volumes to the market in an attempt to regain its share. Recent OPEC updates have been actively discussing oversupply and rising inventories. These are two key price drivers: geopolitics and OPEC's response," the research director added.