OPEC has kept its forecast for oil demand growth in 2022 at 4.2 million bpd, while slightly raising its growth estimate for 2021 to 5.7 million bpd amid positively revised data related to the US, according to the organization’s February report.
At the end of 2021, oil demand in non-OECD countries increased by 3.1 million bpd, in OECD countries - by 2.6 million bpd, where the US became the leader in consumption growth - by 1.6 million bpd, Report informs.
In 2022, this ratio is expected to be 1.8 million bpd and 2.3 million bpd, respectively. OPEC explains that the increase in demand for petroleum products, especially diesel, is facilitated by the growth of industrial activity. Air travel is also gradually recovering.
Thus, at the end of 2021, demand amounted to 96.6 million bpd, according to OPEC. In 2022, demand is expected to increase to 100.8 million bpd, which is 0.7 million bpd more than pre-crisis level of 2019, according to the report.
The supply of oil from non-OPEC countries in 2022 will grow by 3 million bpd. At the same time, OPEC lowered its estimate for 2021 - the increase in supplies will now amount to not 0.7 million, but 0.6 million bpd, up to about 63.6 million bpd. In 2021, the main production growth came from Canada, Russia, China, the US, Argentina and Guyana. At the same time, production declined in the UK, Colombia, Indonesia and Brazil.
As expected, in 2022, the supply of oil from non-OPEC countries will increase by 3 million bpd, to 66.7 million bpd. The main growth drivers will be the US and Russia, as well as Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway and Guyana.