The IEA in its August report lowered the estimate of the growth of global oil demand in 2019 by 100 thousand barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day against the backdrop of worsening geopolitical tensions and allows for further downward revision of the forecast, Report informs citing the TASS.
The forecast for the growth of oil demand in 2020 is also reduced compared to the previous estimate - by 50 thousand bpd - to 1.3 million bpd. Moreover, the total demand remained unchanged for 2019 and will amount to 100.4 million bpd. IEA experts call their current forecast "fragile" in the report and point to "a greater probability of its revision towards further reduction".
The growth rate of demand in both 2019 and 2020 will lag behind the growth rate of oil supply from the non-OPEC countries. Thus, in 2019, oil supplies from these countries will grow by 1.9 million bpd, and in 2020 - by 2.2 million bpd, the IEA expects. As the Agency's specialists stressed earlier, the market will be very well supplied next year.
"There are more and more signs of slowing economic growth, many countries report weak GDP growth in the first half of the year, which indicates a decline in trade and production. Moreover, the prospects for a trade agreement between China and the United States have worsened, which can lead to a decrease in trade activity and a smaller increase in demand for oil," the Agency said in a report.