The likelihood that OPEC+ countries will decide to further reduce oil production at the next meeting is about 35%, according to experts from the Goldman Sachs Group bank, Report informs referring to Interfax.
A group of oil-producing countries may take this step to hedge against possible weakness in the oil market in the first quarter of 2024. However, this is not the base case for Goldman Sachs.
Additional production restrictions, if they happen, will be moderate and short-lived, and leading oil producers will share the obligations to reduce production, experts say. This includes cumulative reduction in production by another 0.5-1 million barrels per day during January-March on the part of Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait.
At the same time, in Goldman’s base case, OPEC+ representatives will decide to keep current production parameters at the same level, and Russia and Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary restrictions until the end of the first quarter of 2024.