Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, three oil-producing post-Soviet countries, are, in principle, ready and have their own scenarios in the event of a drop in oil prices against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump's tariff policy, Russian energy expert Boris Martsinkevich told Report.
"Firstly, duties are usually introduced or canceled - this is Trump's business style. This is an aggravation of the situation before the negotiations, forcing partners to agree to them in order to give concessions during the negotiations themselves," said Martsinkevich.
Secondly, according to him, there is a drop in June futures quotes. "Everyone is waiting to see how the friction between the US and China will end. First of all, prices depend on this. In my opinion, there are no fundamental reasons for the fall in oil prices yet," the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, if the US and China fail to reach an agreement, then we should expect a decline in economic activity, which will lead to a redistribution of transport and logistics flows. For example, China will stop buying American coal. But this situation is in the hands of Russia and Mongolia, which can fill this niche.
On April 14, world oil prices fell, which is happening against the backdrop of investors waiting for reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. On Monday morning, the price of June Brent futures fell by 0.22% to $64.62 per barrel, May WTI futures by 0.2%, to $61.38.
The Russian expert believes that there are no particular problems for the state budgets of Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan that may arise due to the fall in oil prices.
"In Kazakhstan, the country's president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev recently announced that three versions of the state budget are being prepared in the event of a drop in oil prices. There is an optimistic version with oil prices at $78 per barrel and there is an option in the event of a drop in prices to $58 per barrel," Martsinkevich noted.
