The alarming decline in the water levels of the Caspian Sea must be addressed at the upcoming 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) and highlighted in the media, Professor Valery Malinin from the UNESCO-IOC Department of Applied Oceanography and Integrated Coastal Zone Management at the Russian State Hydrometeorological University, told Report.
The scientist warned that a further drop in the Caspian Sea's water levels would lead to the salinization of its waters, putting the aquatic ecosystem at risk. "A decline in the Caspian Sea levels spells disaster for the fishing industry, as it will result in the drying up of spawning grounds for valuable fish species in the northern part of the basin," he cautioned.
The expert also noted that Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev expressed serious concern over the sharp drop in the Caspian Sea levels during discussions at the 2022 Caspian Summit.
However, Professor Malinin pointed out that there are currently no reliable methods for long-term forecasting of the Caspian Sea's water levels. "The climate models most frequently used for this purpose poorly describe even the current climate of the Caspian Sea, indicating their unsuitability for predicting sea levels in the long term (end of the century)," he explained.
Despite the challenges posed by the Caspian Sea's declining water levels, the oceanographer believes it is unlikely that the sea will share the fate of the Aral Sea, which has dramatically shrunk in recent decades due to human activities and climate change.