Azerbaijan could make a unique contribution to the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), John Roberts, member of the Advisory Board for the UN Economic Commission for Europe's (UNECE) Project on Sustainable Energy, a senior researcher of the Atlantic Council, and an energy security specialist, told Report.
"The first thing is that the conference itself is very important, simply because we are going through a period of increased physical signs of climate change. Extreme temperatures, curiously, both cold as well as hot, massive storms, changes in what used to be fairly regular weather patterns, so that we get heavy rainfalls and then we get light rainfalls or no rainfalls," he added.
According to him, everything seems to be going crazy as a result of the chemical composition of the atmosphere: "So therefore, we actually constantly need to be telling both the political leadership of the world and ordinary citizens just how dangerous this situation is and to tell them why it is happening. And the answer is that it is happening because human beings are increasing the average carbon content and, thus, the heating of the planet rapidly. So, in that sense, that's the importance of the conference."
The expert thinks Azerbaijan could announce that it will become the first major supplier of fossil fuels to announce that it will be phasing out its own fossil fuel production: "Now, I'm being very careful in phrasing that, because I haven't put a timeline on it. But already we know that, for example, Azerbaijan's oil production is down to roughly half of what it was in 2010, when it peaked. We know that Azerbaijan's gas production is increasing. But we also know Azerbaijan has some very major projects for renewable energy. At present, renewables only cover around 6% of Azerbaijan's energy supply."
He added that Azerbaijan can literally think it can get by without producing any more oil, coal, or coal gas. And it has one great advantage in this:
"It has phenomenal natural assets in terms of the potential to produce both wind and solar energy, notably the offshore possibility of large volumes of wind power on the Caspian. And also, it is not reliant on coal. So already, it can work it out. How to have a manageable transition—in other words, using the fossil fuel resource it has at present, which is gas—as a long-range transition towards renewables. The one point I would make, though, is that this requires very substantial development of new supply chains, and particularly with regard to exports of new energy sources, because it is very complicated and expensive. For instance, to export hydrogen, and the prospect of exporting electricity, which would be the other logical way of doing it across the Black Sea to European markets, is expensive and also complicated. But I do think this is the kind of approach that would make a radical change and could contribute to net zero emissions by around 2050."
According to Roberts, what is interesting is that Azerbaijan has made its fortune on fossil fuels: "But as far as I can tell, there is a genuine desire in the government to harness renewables. And that ambition gets backed by determination to deliver a renewable future. Azerbaijan is one of the few fossil fuel energy producers that could take such a step and yield its rewards in the long run. But it would be complicated. It will be difficult, but it would be of immense benefit to the world, and it would provide a great example of Azerbaijani leadership."