The threat of the United States imposing secondary tariffs on imports from countries that maintain trade ties with Russia could create new barriers for global trade and complicate international negotiations, Report informs, citing S&P Global Ratings.
From a credit risk perspective, the agency believes that the direct impact of such measures would generally be manageable. However, economies with strong trade links to Russia—particularly in the energy sector—could face significant pressure.
“Despite optimism in markets following recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, and the US and the EU, the prospect of secondary tariffs introduces added uncertainty for global trade. It could also complicate ongoing negotiations with China and India. Furthermore, disruptions in oil supply could temporarily drive up global prices,” the report states.
Who Is Most Vulnerable?
In absolute terms, Russia’s largest trade partners are China, India, and Türkiye. However, Central Asian economies are the most dependent on Russian imports relative to GDP. In the EU, Hungary and France remain significant consumers of Russian gas despite an overall decline in purchases.
S&P considers a full-scale implementation of secondary tariffs unlikely, citing ongoing trade negotiations and the potential negative impact on US businesses and consumers.
The report also highlights that President Donald Trump’s administration issued a 10-day ultimatum to Russia, demanding a ceasefire in Ukraine by August 8. Possible measures include sanctions or tariffs of up to 100% on imports from countries cooperating with Russia.
The US has already announced a 25% tariff on imports from India, effective August 1, 2025, and warned of penalties for trade with Russia. A Senate proposal for a 500% tariff on Russian imports or goods from countries purchasing Russian energy or uranium remains on hold.
Energy Trade in the Crosshairs
Energy remains the most vulnerable sector, S&P notes. Between January and May 2025, Russia’s main energy buyers were China, India, Türkiye, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. In 2024, additional importers included Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.
Credit risk pressure is expected to be stronger in countries where foreign trade accounts for a significant share of GDP and is concentrated among a few partners, including the US. For China and India, exports to the US represent less than 4% of GDP, while for Türkiye and Central Asian nations, the figure is about 1% or less.
Despite this, S&P expects uncertainty in trade policy and indirect effects of secondary tariffs to negatively affect credit quality in affected countries over the next 6–8 months.
Oil Market and Price Risks
A sharp reduction in Russian oil purchases by countries seeking to avoid secondary tariffs could lead to short-term disruptions and price spikes.
In June, Russia produced about 9 million barrels per day, roughly 8.5% of global supply. The main buyers are China, India, and Türkiye. If these countries curb purchases, price volatility could increase, widening the gap between Russian and non-Russian crude and driving up import costs.
However, this effect could be cushioned by OPEC+ spare capacity of over 4 million barrels per day and the current supply surplus, S&P says.
US Leverage and Potential Outcomes
S&P suggests that secondary tariffs may serve as leverage in trade talks, especially in sensitive sectors such as agriculture. The duration of such measures remains uncertain and may be subject to negotiation.
If tariffs extend to importers of Russian energy, the scope may be limited if Brent crude exceeds $80 per barrel, as higher gasoline prices in the US would be politically sensitive.
Should these measures be implemented, retaliatory steps from affected nations are likely, further escalating global trade tensions.
Russia has already signaled readiness for countermeasures: on July 23, it temporarily halted oil shipments via Black Sea ports, which handle up to 80% of Kazakhstan’s exports, following the announcement of new EU sanctions.
“Such actions could accelerate dedollarization and shift trade flows away from the US Changes in global supply chains will create new winners and losers, while a relative weakening of the US dollar may indicate capital redistribution toward other currencies and assets,” S&P concludes.