Fitch Ratings has lowered its forecasts for global metal prices due to changing expectations of economic growth and the dynamics of supply and demand, Report informs referring to the agency.
In particular, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) in 2022 are projected at $8,700 per ton (previously - $9,500), in 2023 - $8,000 ($8,500). For 2024-2025, Fitch has maintained its price forecast for the metal at $7,500 per ton. The agency attributed the cut in the copper price outlook to a slowdown in global economic growth and an expectation of weak demand in the short term compared to supply prospects, which could lead to a small surplus in 2023.
The price of aluminum, according to the agency’s forecasts, will decrease to $2,700 per ton in 2022 (previously - $2,950 per ton), in 2023 - to $2,500 per ton ($2,600). The agency also kept the forecast for 2024-2025 at $2,500 and $2,000 respectively.
Decrease in demand for aluminum, driven by the weakness of the Chinese construction market, will affect prices in the short term, the agency said. However, rising energy prices could make production unprofitable in many markets, which could keep prices from falling further.