Baku. 13 November. REPORT.AZ/ If the price of oil in the world market continues to rise above $ 55/ bbl, official exchange rate of US-dollar in Azerbaijan may drop to 1,60 AZN/USD in February 2018.
Analytical Group of Report informs, Azerbaijan's foreign trade indicators, balance of payments, inflation and economic growth prospects are basis for the strengthening of manat.
Thus, rising oil prices increasing positive balance of foreign trade. At this time, it is possible to increase imports and increase the budget revenues by depreciating US-dollar. It should be taken into account that Azerbaijan still imports major strategic goods from abroad.
"As for the balance of payments, a positive balance of $ 967 million was acquired in the Q2 2017. We forecast this indicator to reach $ 1.2 billion in the Q3. If so, the positive balance of Azerbaijan's balance of payments will approach the index of the II and III quarters of 2014, ie the pre-crisis figures. Notably, the balance of payments at that time resulted in a positive balance of $ 1.59 billion. and $ 1 billion respectively”, analysts said.
Considering the inflation indicator, decline in US-dollar rate is of particular importance. Thus, the dollar's exchange rate should be descending for the decline in inflation rate which is about 14%:
"An indicator of economic growth has a positive impact on depreciation of the dollar. Thus, as a result of the depreciation of U.S. dollar, inflation is declining, which in turn increases the real incomes of the population. Population, in turn, increasing consumer spending which has a positive impact on economic growth”.
Analytical Group of Report News Agency believes, despite probability of decline in US-dollar, Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) will not lose control over the manat in circulation. On another hand, banks are still unable to increase the volume of lending under tough terms. This also means that demand in US-dollar, inflation and economic growth targets will be fully controlled by the Central Bank.