Baku. 24 February. REPORT.AZ/ The ceasefire in Syria is intermediate, we can't talk about any final settlement of the conflict, experts say.
Now comes a crucial moment, when every country, and especially the powerful UN Security Council members should adopt a more flexible position in order to reach a consensus, Report was told by Azerbaijani political scientist Tofig Abbasov.
He noted that the prerequisites for understanding that the Syrian issue can not be solved by force of arms, as many Syrian cities lie in ruins, and the infrastructure severely damaged. "Syria has undergone physical collapse It exists de jure and de facto there is no country, because the multi-million army of refugees left the country", said the analyst.
Speaking about the US role in the settlement of the Syrian conflict, the expert said that today Washington shares the view of the official Moscow, expressed recently by Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to him, most likely, for the official US government, especially for the White House, it is very important, since the second term of Barack Obama is coming to an end.
The expert also expressed the view that after the solution of the Syrian issue on the agenda will be released processes in Iraq.
Commenting on the parliamentary elections in Syria in April of this year, the analyst pointed out that they are, first and foremost, should soften the atmosphere around the future of the Syrian authorities, and even the environment of President Bashar Assad. "I think that after some time he will resign, officially announcing it, but that does not mean it will go the forces that are now directly represent and support the position of Bashar Assad with Syrian political scene", he added.
In turn, a professor of Russian National Research University "Higher School of Economics" (HSE), the political scientist Dmitry Evstafyev noted that in September last year predicted the cessation of hostilities until March 2016. "The active phase of the Syrian conflict must end by March, which is due to the fighting and a number of weather reasons, in particular the advent of the so-called Khamsin period is an important weather factor", he added.
At the same analyst said that the armistice agreements were certain political conditions, including the general willingness of the majority of political players and especially the majority of foreign players in the Syrian conflict to agree to limit the scope of the confrontation.
The expert noted that neither Saudi Arabia nor the US, nor even Qatar nor Iran, which is emerging from international isolation, nor Russia are interested in, to turn the civil war into a full-fledged war in the Middle East.
Dmitry Evstafyev emphasized that to date none of the sections of the Syrian front has not reached a certain stable position. "Moreover, it is highly unlikely that by February 27, when fighting in large parts of the territory of Syria stop, this stable position is reached", he said.
According to him, today, no reason to talk about the possibility of a lasting peace settlement yet.
Speaking about the upcoming parliamentary elections in April, in Syria, the analyst pointed out that it is unlikely that Russia will enable Bashar Assad to carry out this process is fully under his scenario. According to him, the electoral process will be internationalized, which will fit together with the interests of Russia and interests of a country like Iran, which has also contributed to the stabilization of the Assad regime.
The expert did not rule out leaving Assad as president at some point, since, in his view, a ceasefire agreement is an intermediate and relatively general.