In the last two weeks French politics underwent a serious change. The incoming government will most certainly continue the policies of the previous one in regard to Azerbaijan, with a high probability of escalating rhetoric that is harmful to the relationship between the two countries.
The appointment of Gabriel Attal didn’t change the ministerial cabinet in the most radical of ways and yet several new appointments and retaining of key anti-Azerbaijani ministers’ points towards the continuation of an escalation that already hurt the bilateral relationship between Azerbaijan and France.
Primarily it is important to point the attention to the fact that the new Prime Minister who is only 34 years of age, lacks significant political knowledge but compensates through his oratorial skills. Gabriel Attal whose index of popularity is at the record high made his career through the most difficult period for France as a spokesperson of the government. His understanding of what the French political and social classes need to hear in the times of Covid-19 presented him with strong credentials as a person who is capable to hold a daily contact with the nation and respond to most difficult questions from the opposition politicians and lawmakers.
According to the French daily Le Monde, one of the strongest skills Attal, who was nicknamed “young Gabriel” by the former Prime Minister Jean Castex, possesses, is his capability to avoid making enemies in the French political sphere. On this matter it is safe to expect the convergence of his ideas vis-à-vis Azerbaijan with the opposition lawmakers, primarily those of Les Republicains.
It is also safe to expect that his views will coincide with the staunchest anti-Azerbaijan lawmakers such as Valerie Pecresse, Anne Hidalgo, Laurent Wauquiez, Eric Ciotti and François-Xavier Bellamy (all LR, except Hidalgo). Why? Primarily because the new French Prime Minister will seek to find common ground on as many issues as he can with those opposing the current government.
The issue of Azerbaijan presents a perfect common ground for convergence of interests and since Attal is master at forging and keeping all communication lines open, Azerbaijan will be undoubtedly a way to build bridges rather than burn them. Secondly, which is even more important, Gabriel Attal was a staunch supporter of the Armenian government and their views, as he was the only minister in the Macron government who openly attended Armenian diaspora’s rallies and meetings. Such a show of support from a minister who according to all political protocols must abstain from showing unilateral support is an unpleasant sign for the future of Azerbaijani French relationship. But the problem is not only Attal. His new cabinet presents threats on several flanks.
The new Foreign Affairs minister, Stéphane Séjourné, who is a former partner of Mr. Attal also is a person involved in the matters of the Azerbaijani-Armenian disputes. Mr. Séjourné initiated a resolution asking for sanctions on Azerbaijan. In his interview with France Inter, in September, Séjourné regretted that it’s EU partners did not sufficiently support France’s commitment to this issue of sanctioning Azerbaijan. “We are trying to build a coalition,” he said. His most recent declaration, already as a foreign minister of France, where he presented his plans to the French diplomatic corpus revolved around signifying that “France will continue to provide it’s support to Armenia”
The third ministerial change that is the most curious from perspective of Azerbaijan, is Rachida Dati. A longtime friend of Azerbaijan and a savvy and skillful politician, Mrs. Dati has been forging ties with Azerbaijan for the past decade. Her support of Azerbaijan presents a possibility of a singular link in the new French government that can prove to be a possibility to restore the relations between the two countries that have suffered massive damage in the past 4 years. Yet, it would be imprudent to expect her to act as an intermediary between the countries due to several factors. Dati is an experienced politician who knows how to avoid political “land mines”.
Her understanding of the foreign relations together with her extensive contacts in the French political establishment indicate that taking on such a difficult role at this point of time will not lead to any benefits, politically or personally speaking. As a former Justice Minister under President Sarkozy, Dati built relationship with Olivier Pardo, her current lawyer and former advisor during her work as a Minister as well as the lawyer of the Azerbaijani embassy in France. While this certainly something that can create a positive sentiment and be used by the French government to build bridges it is unlikely that such a possibility will come to fruition.
It is also unlikely that Rachida Dati will be one of those politicians who will attack Azerbaijan, primarily due to her conflict with the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo who holds critical views of Azerbaijan and due to the recent expulsion of Mrs. Dati from the French Republican party (due to the fact that she accepted the ministerial role), the current center of all attacks on Azerbaijan.
The new Minister of Defense (who has been retained in his position), Sébastien Lecornu, is also known for his anti-Azerbaijani stance. In a 2020 interview, Lecornu called Azerbaijan "an aggressor" and said that France should support Armenia in the Karabakh conflict.
In the current political landscape one thing is clear. Azerbaijan can’t count on France as an honest broker and intermediary in its relationship with Armenia. When the President of France openly declares to his French armed forces that the country will stand with Armenia, when the Prime Minister attends pro-Armenian rallies and the Foreign Minister initiates declares to the diplomatic team further support of Armenia, the options of a restart and a positive dynamic between Azerbaijan and France are practically inexistant.
Jamal Mustafayev