The world food import bill is estimated to rise to $1.94 trillion in 2022, higher than previously expected, according to a new report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Report informs.
The new forecast presented in FAO’s Food Outlook would mark an all-time high and a 10cent increase over the record level of 2021:
“Although the pace of the increase is expected to slow down in response to higher world food prices and depreciating currencies against the United States dollar. Both weigh on the purchasing power of importing countries and, subsequently, on the volumes of imported food.”
The bulk of the increase in the bill is accounted for by high-income countries, due mostly to higher world prices, while volumes are also expected to rise. Economically vulnerable country groups are being more affected by the higher prices. For instance, the aggregate food import bill for the group of low-income countries is expected to remain almost unchanged even though it is predicted to shrink by 10% in volume terms, pointing to a growing accessibility issue for these countries.
“These are alarming signs from a food security perspective, indicating importers are finding it difficult to finance rising international costs, potentially heralding an end of their resilience to higher international prices,” the report from FAO’s Markets and Trade Division warns.
The Food Outlook report, which breaks down food trade patterns by food groups, warns that existing differences are likely to become more pronounced, with high-income countries continuing to import across the entire spectrum of food products while developing regions are increasingly focused on staple foods: “In this context, FAO welcomes the approval by the International Monetary Fund of a Food Shock Window - broadly based on FAO’s Food Import Financing Facility proposal - as an important step to ease the burden of soaring food import costs among lower-income countries.”
The Food Outlook also assesses global expenditures on imported agricultural inputs, including fertilizers. The global input import bill is expected to rise to US$ 424 billion in 2022, up 48% from the year before and as much as 112% from 2020.
According to FAO, negative repercussions for global agricultural output and food security will likely extend into 2023.
“World wheat production is forecast to reach a record 784 million tonnes in 2022/23, buoyed by significant harvest recoveries in Canada and the Russian Federation. That should push global wheat inventories to record levels, although the report notes that the accumulations are expected mostly in China and the Russian Federation, while stock levels are predicted to drop by 8% in the rest of the world,” the report said.