Pakistan, one of the main rice suppliers of Azerbaijan, is expected to export a record amount of rice this year.
Report informs citing S&P Global that Pakistan's rice exports are forecast to reach a new record of 5 million mt in MY 2023-24, surpassing the 4.8 million mt achieved in MY 2021-22.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Pakistani milled rice production to increase 64% year on year to 9 million mt in the marketing year 2023-24 (November-October), which would be the second-largest crop ever, marginally below the record 9.3 million mt crop in MY 2021-22.
India's export ban has helped Pakistani exporters, the agency analysts say adding that they see many buyers from Africa and the Far East who used to buy Indian rice in Pakistani market.
Several trade sources said that Iran is also likely to buy Pakistani rice in the first half of 2024
All the same, it is noted that no Chinese buying is likely until Q4 2024.
"African destinations are expected to remain the leading export markets for non-Basmati rice. In these markets, Pakistan has a logistical advantage, plus more competitive FOB prices, compared to Southeast Asian suppliers.
"However, freight rates from Pakistan to West Africa, Europe and North America rose sharply as major shipping firms suspended Red Sea transits due to attacks on shipping by Yemen-based Houthi militants. If the Red Sea issue remains unresolved many exporters expect buyers to delay their purchases in the first quarter.
"Freight rates to the EU will increase with the introduction of a surcharge following EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) coming into force effective Jan. 1, 2024," the report says.
Last year the main supplier of rice to Azerbaijan (85% of the 10-month import volume) was India, but the purchase of rice from Pakistan increased significantly. Thus, in January-October 2023, Azerbaijan bought 1,703 tons of rice from Pakistan, which is 82% more than a year ago.