Short-term fall of US dollar in Azerbaijan is possible - FORECAST

If the world market will continue to rise oil prices in the coming days, US dollar may fall to 1,0450 AZN / USD

Baku. 2 March. REPORT.AZ/ Falling of the value of US dollar over the past four days at 0.0006 manat - up to 1,0496 AZN / USD is a result of increasing oil prices to a record mark in the last three months - 62 USD per barrel.

Report informs, the country is experiencing a serious decline in the official euro exchange rate (1.11% or more than two copeec) - up to 1,1733 AZN / EUR. As a result, we can see that the manat still pegged to the dollar, and the introduction of the currency basket CBA system is not working.

Analytical Group of the Report News Agency says that, if there was a shift to the basket, the goal and the daily cost (course) baskets were to be made public: "The system of the currency basket, as previously announced, will be 20-30% share of the euro, 70-80% - US dollars. This would lead to a strengthening of the dollar against the manat and fall in value of the euro in the domestic market as a result of the strengthening of the dollar against the euro on the world market. In Azerbaijan, there was a slight weakening of the dollar and the sharp depreciation of the euro. "

On the eve of Novruz holiday Azerbaijani population expect high costs. This is an increase in consumer prices.

With regard to exchange rates, it is necessary to pay attention to the price of oil. At the peak of the crisis, the cost of Brent crude oil fell to $47 per barrel mark WTI - up to $ 45 per barrel. That is, the spread between the two brands of oil dropped to two dollars. To date, the spread is about 13 dollars. That is the price of Brent crude oil is $62, WTI - $49. Russia exported oil in quality and price is close to the oil brand Light. In the oil price of this brand there are no significant changes, the minimum raise is $4 or 10%. Although during this period the cost of Brent increased by 33%. There is a possibility that oil prices both brands soar to $75 (Brent) and $57 (Light).

The cost depends on the Azerbaijani oil prices for Brent, so in case the above forecast in the coming days is expected to short-term consolidation of manat and depreciation of the dollar to 1,0450 AZN / USD.

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