Baku. 9 September. REPORT.AZ/ China's aggregate debt in last 10 years increased by 30-40% of GDP and reached 300% of GDP. Report informs citing the Goldman Sachs, in 2015 alone China had new debt in the amount of 25 trillion yuan or 3.7 trillion USD, which is equivalent to 36% of GDP.
Earlier, over the long term, China's debt for analysts meant the figure of Total Social Financing TSF which have been reduced by Chinese government as much as possible.
According to TSF the volume of new loans in China increased by 25% of GDP which is by 9% less than the real volume of lending.
Overall, China hid the actual amount of credit debt and showed about 35% lower. The reason is simple:China does not want the world and the country's population to know how much it is dependent on loans.Of course, these loans were fully provided, but China's asset quality is getting worse. Bank analysts say if China discloses actual financial indicators, then the outflow of capital from country will accelerate which strike banking system and national currency - yuan as a result, there will be a new wave of global crisis.
Goldman Sachs has estimated China's real credit volume and came to the conclusion that the influx of new loans in the first half of 2016, amounted to 35% of GDP. Decrease in the formation of loans rated as positive and has reduced the gap with TSF.It also shows an increase in fight against "shadow" lending. According to the bank, China to achieve the forecast of 6.5% economic growth must provide the current level of investment and therefore should maintain the intensity of lending.
That's to say, People's Bank of China simply can not restrain credit growth.
By 2019, the debt to GDP ratio exceeds 400%, which means not only the bank, but also of the global financial crisis. The People's Bank of China and Beijing hide the truth through a series of effective exercises, such as the nationalization of the equity markets, bonds and currencies. However, after some time, China's problems could lead to a new global financial crisis.