Baku. 31 March. REPORT.AZ/ Even with the stabilization of oil prices at 50 per barrel in next three years, the Russian economy will not be able to get out of the recession. Report informs referring to Kommersant, this prediction was given by analysts of Development center High School of Economy.
The HSE experts have considered two scenarios for the development of the Russian economy depending on the oil price - given that the current anti-Russian sanctions remain in force. In the first scenario, at 35 USD per barrel, the decline in GDP in 2016 will be 1.6% until 2020.The total decline in GDP for the years 2015-2019 could reach 8.1%.
The second, more optimistic scenario also does not give the economy a chance to grow.Even with stabilization of price at 50 USD in 2017-2020 years continuous recession is inevitable.According to researchers HSE at 45 per barrel, the decline in GDP in 2016 will amount to 0.8%, the budget deficit - 2.7% of GDP, followed by a reduction to 1% of GDP.The total decline in GDP for the years 2015-2019 in this scenario, analysts estimated at 5.6%."Rising oil prices to 50 dollars per barrel facilitates the economy to adapt to new conditions, but you can not go to stable growth earlier than 2020," the study says.
"The decline in budgetary expenditure considering institutional constraints will primarily worsen the situation in the social sphere.Salaries of state employees for the years 2015-2020 will be reduced by 22-30% in real terms.The alleged continuation of the recession leads to the fact that the decline in real incomes will continue for another three years ", - economists predict.