Choice of Azerbaijan in the Russian-Turkish escalation - ANALYTICS

Development of events may be predicted in one of two options

Baku. 2 December. REPORT.AZ/ Turkey's downing of Russian military aircraft led to a new situation in the region. Russian political and expert circles are still in a hysterical state. Some of them have such insane proposal as "provide PKK with weapons," "destroy Turkey from inside," "use Armenians against Turkey."

If the Kremlin chooses this way, it will have a negative impact on Russian-Turkish relations and both countries will be on the brink of war.

In all cases, we can predict that events will develop in one of two options:

First option. Russia will expand the scope of military involvement in Syria, increase the number of anti-aircraft missile systems on the border with Turkey.

In case if any Turkish plane tries to cross the Syrian border, the Russian anti-aircraft missile launchers will try to knock it down.

With this, Russia will try to achieve a draw. Furthermore, through the Kurdish groups in Syria Russia could smuggle weapons to PKK.

The second option. After some time, the Russian authorities try to reduce tension in relations with Turkey.

To this end, the possibility of establishing bilateral military commission that will investigate the question of the downed aircraft exists. The purpose of the commission will be to prevent further border incidents. Russia continues to export gas to Turkey and will not abandon construction of nuclear power plants in Turkey.

The political and expert circles in Russia should realize that the pressures and insults to the Turkey cause resentment of Turkic-speaking states in their friendship with Russia.

It may negatively affect their relations with Russia in the future.

Russia has a choice. If the Kremlin prefers the first option, it will lead to a complete freeze of relations between the two countries and increase tensions. If Russia chooses the second option, we can talk about normalization of relations with Turkey.

However, in all cases, the interests of Moscow and Ankara will overlap as long as there is war in Syria and the Kremlin supports Assad.

The aggravation of the Russian-Turkish relations is also unfavorable for Azerbaijan's interests. Baku adheres to the neutral position in the tense situation between Russia and Turkey. Despite this, Turkey is a military and strategic ally of Azerbaijan.

Ankara supports Baku's fair position in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. During the year Azerbaijan and Turkey have repeatedly held joint military exercises. The program of military training is prepared for 2016 also. It is no coincidence that, after determining the composition of the Turkish government, his first visit, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu paid to Baku on November 27. At a meeting with Cavusoglu, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stressed continuation of the strategic relations with Turkey.

The aggravation of the Russian-Turkish relations serves the interests of the Armenian authorities, the separatists and the Armenian lobby. They pursue three objectives in aggravation of the Russian-Turkish relations:

The first goal is make Russia to increase its support for Armenia and the Armenian lobby in the issue of recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide;

The second goal is to make Russia expand military bases in Armenia and place in a modern military equipment;

The third goal is to make Russia not consider the interests of Azerbaijan in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

In general, at the time of Russian-Turkish relations' aggravation, the information that "Russia will influence Armenia to free the surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh area," has lost its relevance.

Given the fact that Azerbaijan is an ally of Turkey, the Kremlin is not interested in solving the territorial problem ally of Ankara. However, this factor does not limit the possibilities of Azerbaijan to exercise the right to liberate its occupied territories.

Elkhan Shahinoglu special for Report

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